More Pieces in the Distributed Biofuel Production Puzzle

Here are some additional musings on distributed production of biofuels and economies of scale:

Following on last month's launch of the efuel100 Microfueler, which seems to be a step toward distributed biofuel production, comes word of a couple of high school students who built a "Personal Automated Ethanol Fermenter and Distiller" (via Wired) for the 2008 Intel International Science and Engineering Fair.

In the video, Eric Hodenfield and Devin Bezdicek don't give a great deal of detail about their project, but I think it is fascinating that a couple of high school students decided to build a widget intended to facilitate personal fuel production.  Kudos to those two.  The device, like the Microfueler, is supposed to produce ethanol on a small scale, but both would be useful to produce Butanol instead if the appropriate microbe were handy, as I have written about before.

But why stop there?  What about home production of petroleum?  The TimesOnline this week has a short story about LS9, featuring Greg Pal, who suggests the company has a microbe with the capability to produce petroleum at $50 per barrel using Brazilian sugar as a feedstock.  (See my earlier post LS9 - "The Renewable Petroleum Company" - in the News.)  That number is interesting, because when I met Mr. Pal last fall at a retreat organized by Bio-era, he was more reticent about proposing a target price.  It would seem that the company is making decent progress, with Mr. Pal suggesting to the Times that LS9 hopes to be producing fuel on a commercial scale by 2011.

The Times article goes on to list some rather large sounding figures for the land that might be required to supply the US fuel weekly demand of ~140 million barrels using microbes; "205 square miles, an area roughly the size of Chicago".  Skipping the issue of whether there is enough sugar produced around the world to use as feedstock, the choice of paving Chicago over to crank out a weekly supply of renewable petroleum is a little odd.  Simplifying the calculation makes the whole problem seem quite reasonable.

First, consider that US daily oil consumption is something like 20 million barrels, according to the DOE.  So, if in practice biofuel production is no more efficient than LS9 projects, we will only require a little over 29 square miles of infrastructure or a plot about 5.4 miles on a side.

Spreading that out over all 50 states (ignoring the fact that population is not evenly distributed), we would need only ~.6 square miles per state.  Every city of decent size in this country has industrial parks bigger than that.  No problem there.

Taking the this approximation to the extreme -- say, to the "personal fermenter and distiller" high school science project -- dividing the 29 square milles by the 2008 US population of about 300,000,000 gives a silly figure of 10-7 square miles per person; that's about a foot and a half on a side.  Switching to more rational units, it is ~40 cm on a side.  A family of four (on average) would therefore require roughly a square meter to produce a daily supply of fuel at present consumption levels.  Coincidentally, photos of the efuel100 Microfueler suggest it has a footprint of about a meter square.

Of course, only about two-thirds of total oil consumption goes to transportation, with much of that used by commercial operations, so that family of four would be overproducing even at a meter square (in the present ridiculous units of [production/day/person/area]).  Realistically, larger facilities would probably be employed to produce fuel or "renewable petroleum" for industrial purpposes.

How much the capital costs would be for the square meter of production capacity is up in the air.  The Microfueler lists at ~$10K.  I'll bet the high school students can beat that.

What's yours is yours...right?

Does information describing the pattern of genetic markers embedded in your genome, and even the sequence of your own DNA, belong to you?  I would say yes, but evidently the California Department of Public Health (DPH) has its doubts.

As reported in the LA Times, the DPH has sent cease and desist letters to 13 companies that offer direct-to-consumer genetic testing.  I am especially confused about this because if you have an extra $1-10 million sitting around, you can FedEx your DNA to any number of sequencing companies and have them send you an electronic copy of your sequence in a few months (see my earlier post, "The Million Dollar Genome").

The LA Times, The San Jose Mercury News, and The San Francisco Chronicle all report that the letters were sent following "consumer complaints" about "the price and accuracy of the results".  According to the Chronicle, "California law requirescompanies that conduct genetic testing to have those tests ordered by a licensed physician and to use laboratories that are both licensed by the state and have federal certification."

There appears to be some tension between the interpretation of tests ordered for diagnostic purposes, which probably should require a prescription, and sequencing or genotyping services that provide information about a consumer's genetic makeup.

From the Mercury News:

A spokeswoman for 23andMe, which has financial backing from Google Inc. and Genentech Inc., described the company as an "informational service."

"What we do is offer people information about their genetic makeup, including ancestry and applicable scientific research," spokeswoman Rachel Cohen said.

If physical or pharmaceutical intervention of some sort will be based the results of the test, you probably want a doctor involved in interpreting the results, particularly since correlations between genome sequence and health are still being elucidated.  But even when such correlations are strong, practicing physicians may not know what to do with the information.  As the LA Times points out, "Public health officials have urged consumers to be skeptical, pointing out that most of the research is in its earliest stages and that doctors have little training in interpreting the results."

This gets to the heart of the matter for people interested in knowing their own sequence.  It may be true that connections between relating sequence information and physiology may be sparse, but should that prevent consumers from having access to the raw information?  A physician may take some time to integrate genetic testing into daily practice: should we all be forced to wait until doctors are up to speed?  And what if you just want to know about the pattern of mutations that gives you insight into your ancestry, or are simply curious about the sequence of your own DNA?

Over at Wired News, Thomas Goetz has a few things to say on these issues to the California DPH:

[The cease and desist letters reflect] as much a cultural disagreement as a legal or regulatory one. That is, there is the assumption in the states' letters that, because genetic information has medical implications, the dissemination of this information must fall under their jurisdiction.

But there are, in fact, all sorts of areas in life that have medical implications that we don't consider the province of government -- a pregnancy test, most obviously. We neither want nor assume that doctors should have a gatekeeper role in establishing whether we are or are not pregnant, nor do we look to the state to protect us from that information. Pregnancy is a part of life, and it has all sorts of implications and ramifications. So too with DNA.

For Goetz, who reported for Wired last year on direct-to-consumer genetic testing, the DPH is inserting its bureaucratic nose, and a physician, where neither are wanted or needed:

This is not a dark art, province of the select few, as many physicians would have it. This is data. This is who I am. Frankly, it's insulting and a curtailment of my rights to put a gatekeeper between me and my DNA.

This is *my* data, not a doctor's. Please, send in your regulators when a doctor needs to cut me open, or even draw my blood. Regulation should protect me from bodily harm and injury, not from information that's mine to begin with.

So, bringing this back to the motivations for the cease and desist letters, what of the complaints about "price" and "accuracy"?

The 23andMe homepage advertises that the company provides:

A web-based service that helps you read and understand your DNA. After providing a saliva sample using an at-home kit, you can use our interactive tools to shed new light on your distant ancestors, your close family and most of all, yourself.

Nothing about diagnostics there.  But following the "Gene Journal" link leads to an "Odds Calculator" that will:

Help you put it all in perspective, allowing you to combine genetic information, age, and ethnicity to get an idea of which common health concerns are most likely to affect a person with your genetic profile. While the Odds Calculator is neither a medical diagnostic nor a substitute for medical advice, it can help you confront the bewildering array of health news reported in the mass media and help you decide where you may want to focus your attention.

(Note the specific caveat that the service is not "a medical diagnostic".)

Given the early stage of most efforts to link genomes with physiology, it would be very surprising if a small start-up could assemble the resources to "put it all in perspective".  But even if they don't have the ability to pull that off in a manner I would be satisfied with, it isn't clear that the state should be denying them the opportunity to try.

With respect to the "price" complaint, the last time I checked we are living in a society in which goods and services are priced according to what the market can bear.  Since neither private insurers nor the government is paying for these particular services, which are not intended to provide information to be used in healthcare, there does not appear to be a good argument that the state should care what the price is.

With respect to the "accuracy" complaint, it would seem that these companies are already trying to do business in a competitive environment -- if they aren't providing accurate information then presumably they will succumb to companies that provide better information to consumers.  Again, since this isn't a diagnostic service, it is not clear that the state should intrude in the transaction.

There are a great many snake oil peddlers and quacks out there who offer no caveats as to accuracy or effectiveness, and in comparison 23andMe and its competitors appear paragons of virtue.  Direct-to-consumer genetic information services are creating a new market, and there always bumps along the way in that endeavor, particularly when regulators decide they know more about technology than do innovators.  But it is a market. It is not, in priciple, directly related to health.  Caveat emptor.  Since when is this the concern of Department of Public Health?

Biodesic: It's Alive!

This little post serves as the official launch of Biodesic.  As the book is finally done, or at least mostly in the hands of the publisher, I can turn my full attention to getting the start-up company out of my garage.

As the website says:

Biodesic is part of the new bio-economy. We provide technologies and knowledge to organizations building the future.

Our mission is to transform business and society through the development and distribution of biological technologies.

Here are examples of recent consulting projects.   Our first product is a parallel protein detection tool.  It is similar to Tadpoles but detection is much simpler, and there is no need to amplify a signal using PCR.  We believe the technology will provide novel and useful capabilities for clinical diagnostics and for engineering biological systems.  For more details, see "Technology for Sensitive Multiplexed Protein Detection".

2008 US Presidential Candidates' Positions on Biological Technologies

Biological technologies constitute a rapidly growing portion of the US economy.  When you add together drugs, plants, and industrial products, genetically modified organisms now contribute about $130 billion, or ~1%, to the US Gross Domestic Product, with sector revenues growing at 15-20% per year.

Given our reliance on new biological technologies to provide innovations in health care, food production, biofuels, materials, and myriad other areas, the policy preferences of the next President will have a profound impact on the future of the bio-economy.  What follows is a non-partisan, though highly biased (in favor of biological technologies), look at the positions that are easily accessible on the web.

Unfortunately, the candidate with the best explicit proposals just dropped out.  Science and technology receive far too little attention from the two supposed nominees, and neither have agreed to participate in a science-only debate, such as the one proposed by ScienceDebate2008.

Where do they stand?

Senator McCain's campaign web site contains very little in the way of specifics about the role of science and technology in driving the economy.  Here is his "Issues" page.  Spread through the sections on Healthcare, Climate Change, and the Space Program, there are brief mentions of the need to provide funding for innovation, and to keep regulation minimal.  But no specific policy proposals.  The AAAS "Candidates Compared" page on McCain has substantially more detail his positions than his actual web site, but it is still pretty minimal if you are looking for a guide to his eventual policy positions.  All in all, quite disheartening.

Grade in Biological Technologies: C, but only with today's rampant grade inflation.

Senator Obama's Technology page has improved a bit since the last time I checked it out.  Previously, based on the text, "technology" was synonymous with communications and the Internet.  Now, in addition to a broadly worded proposals on communications tech and education, the Senator now has a few paragraphs addressing funding for technologies to mitigate climate change and reforming immigration and the patent system.  On the Healthcare page, he expresses his enthusiasm for "Advancing the Biomedical Research Field" and promises to increase funding.  Hurrah.  At the bottom of the Healthcare and Environment pages there are reasonably detailed policy summaries available as PDFs.

Grade in Biological Technologies: B, but only because based on the language in the policy summaries I can imagine he is willing to listen.

Alas, the policy positions relevant to biological technologies of the lately departed (from the race) Senator Clinton are much more detailed and coherent than the two putative nominees.  The most specific proposal for biological technologies in the Clinton "Innovation Agenda" is this (even though it substantially underestimates the contribution to the US economy):

Increase investment in the non-health applications of biotechnology in order to fuel 21st century industry.The NIH dominates federal investments in biology and the life sciences, and there are only a few programs exploring non-health applications of biotech. And although biotechnology is a $50 billion industry, it is still in its infancy-and that is particularly true where the non-health applications are concerned. An example of non-health biotech is the creation of bacteria that can remove toxins from the environment, such as heavy metals or radioactive contaminants. Insights from biotechnology can accelerate growth in a large number of other fields-not unlike the way 20th century developments in the chemicals industry drove growth in oil and gas refining, pulp and paper, building materials, and pharmaceuticals. The NIH will have to work with other agencies to explore these non-health applications.

It is true that in this quotation nowhere present are the words "metabolic engineering", "synthetic biology", or "metagenomics", but in my reading of the text those fields are how we get to meaningful results from "non-health applications".

The Agenda also calls for, "Requiring that federal research agencies set aside at least 8% of their research budgets for discretionary funding of high-risk research."   This sounds great, and I am in favor of it, but I wonder if there are enough talented program managers out there to handle the load.

Finally, the Agenda calls for, "Increasing the NIH budget by 50% over 5 years and aim to double it over 10 years."  While I would like to cheer for this, the NIH has not been the paragon of innovation over the last couple of decades, with the vast majority of funding going to established investigators rather than young people.  Even with an increase in funding, I don't see the NIH investing in synthetic biology any time soon.

Grade in Biological Technologies: A, and head of the class, but not "+" because while she addressed many of the relevant I am afraid the Senator didn't use the actual key words on the checklist.  That's how you grade essays, after all.

But, of course, even if she is as much of a policy wonk as her husband, Senator Clinton did not write the essay.  Somebody else did, and we can only hope that Obama or McCain 1) immediately picks up whomever was responsible for Clinton's excellent policy positions, and 2) listens to that person...

The First Meeting of DIYbio.org

Jason Bobe has posted a write -up of a recent meeting of would-be do-it-yourself biological engineers in Cambridge, MA.  See DIYbio.org.

Here's the first paragraph:

In the packed back-room of Asgard's Irish Pub in Cambridge, a diversecrowd of 25+ enthusiasts gathered to discuss the next big thing in biology: amateurs. Mackenzie (Mac) Cowell led-off the night with an overview of recent history in biological engineering, and asked the question: Can molecular biology or biotechnology be a hobby? Will advancements in synthetic biology be the tipping point that enables DIYers and garagistas to make meaningful contributions to the biological sciences, outside of traditional institutions? Can DIYbio.org be the Homebrew Computer Club of biology?

Farming and Economies of Scale

Biological technologies constitute a rapidly growing portion of the U.S. GDP, about 1%, or $150 billion, as of early 2008.  If biological processes continue to displace chemical processes in industry, we might expect all of industry to look more like biology.  While most industrial chemistry is carried out in large facilities, throughout the living world big organisms are rare.  Yes, we have a few examples of gigantic trees and charismatic megafauna, but very few creatures are larger than about a meter.  The vast majority of biomass on Earth consists of microbes.

Physics and economics both dictate that some kinds of industrial processes are best implemented at scale.  Anything involving large amounts of heat, particularly when there are large masses of water involved, generally benefits from increased scale because energy can be more easily contained and recycled.  Energy is more easily contained with small surface to volume ratios; big vessels and pipes loose less heat.  Similarly, benefits of scale can be found in big pipes have less fluid resistance and are easier to pump things through.

Biology tends to do things smaller.  Thus when I muse about the possibility of distributed biological manufacturing, particularly the potential of distributed biofuel production, I am inspired by the fact that biological processing tends to be networked or mobile.  Ecosystems are full of material transport and exchange, a large part of which is mediated by animals that wander around eating in one place and crapping in another.

As transportation costs increase with the price of oil, moving both food and manufactured goods around will be ever more expensive.  At some point, we should expect food to be cheaper when grown locally and transported shorter distances.

According to an Op-Ed in The New York Times a couple of weeks ago, we are well past the point where small farms are more economical than large ones.  In "Change We Can Stomach", Dan Barber writes that:

...Small farms are the most productive on earth. A four-acre farm in theUnited States nets, on average, $1,400 per acre; a 1,364-acre farm nets $39 an acre. Big farms have long compensated for the disequilibrium with sheer quantity. But their economies of scale come from mass distribution, and with diesel fuel costing more than $4 per gallon in many locations, it’s no longer efficient to transport food 1,500 miles from where it’s grown.

Mr. Brown doesn't cite any sources for these numbers, but it is something I will be looking into as my book finally gets wrapped up.  It is generally asserted by economists that 1) large farms are a better use of land, and require less labor per unit output, than small farms, and 2) labor has a higher value in cities when employed in manufacturing.

But cows are cheap and mobile, and if biological technology ever gets to the point of using cows to produce industrial products, then the economies of scale could be radically shifted.  I am put in mind of a short story by David Brin in which not only cows are used as biomanufacturing platforms, but people are, too.  Here's to hoping that is some years off.

"Scenarios for the future of synthetic biology"

It is always tempting to extend technological trends to predict grand futures.  Yet predictions usually fail, either because one can never have sufficient information about the state of the world or simply because of surprise.  One method to address the inherent uncertainty in understanding future events is to explicitly delineate one's ignorance through the use of scenarios.  While I am no expert in developing scenarios, I  have always found my experiences with the Global Business Network and Bio-era in developing stories to be extremely useful in identifying what I don't know.

Bio-era has recently published a feature commentary in Industrial Biotechnology, "Scenarios for the future of synthetic biology" (for PDFs, follow the link).  Here is a brief excerpt:

The rapid evolution of biological engineering raises challenging questions about the future economic, social, and environmental consequences of the use of this technology.  Considering these broad issues requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty: We can imagine many possible futures, but we cannot predict how events will actually unfold. Formal scenarios can provide a useful, structured basis for considering plausible future circumstances—enabling us to more easily identify key implications and any choices or policy considerations we might need to take either now or in the future.

Efforts at technology forecasting have, at best, a poor record.  Early predictions of the future of the computer industry envisioned the need for only a handful of large computers to meet all conceivable computing needs. In 1980, the US government and other analysts foresaw a boom in synthetic fuels that never materialized. Scientists and governments over several decades vastly underestimated the difficulty of developing practical fusion reactors. Early assessments of the cost of sequencing the human genome turned out to be too high by almost an order of magnitude. In each of these cases, significant economic and policy decisions were premised on predictions of the future that proved to be far off the mark.

...Each of the four stories presented here represents a plausible path to an uncertain future.  They are not predictions about the future, nor should they be understood as more plausible than other possible futures. Our modest hope, is that they might usefully serve to provoke consideration of the complex implications that accompany the introduction and diffusion of powerful new technologies that will inevitably lead to far-reaching policy decisions made under conditions of fundamental uncertainty.

"Scenarios for the future of synthetic biology", Stephen Aldrich, James Newcomb, Robert Carlson.  Industrial Biotechnology.  March 1, 2008, 4(1): 39-49.  doi:10.1089/ind.2008.039.

efuel100 Web Site Goes Live -- Buy Yours NOW!

I just received a tip that the web site is now up for the small-scale fermentation and distillation machine I mentioned last week (see "A Step Toward Distributed Biofuel Production?").  The efuel100 Microfueler supposedly takes a mixture of sugar, yeast, and nutrients and returns pure ethanol in a few days.  According to the site, you can also distill waste alcoholic beverages -- this ought to catch the attention of the guys at Gizmodo.

If anybody reading this plunks down the ~$10K for a Microfueler, followed by paying for all the razorblades proprietary feedstock, let me know how it works out.  I am definitely curious to see if the electricity costs to run the fermenter/distiller are as low as claimed.

A Step Toward Distributed Biofuel Production?

Sunday's New York Times caries an article by Michael Fitzgerald, "Home Brew for the Car, Not the Beer Cup", that describes a potential step toward garage production of biofuels, specifically ethanol.

(Update: I wrote to Mr. Fitzgerald in the hopes of getting more information, and he responded with this:

The company currently has only this placeholder site with a form on it:  www.efuel100.com.

It intends to announce its product May 8th, at which time it says it will have more information available.

So we will just have to wait to find out more.)

I have speculated for the last year or so about the feasibility and utility of distributed microbial production of biofuels.  Petroleum refineries and shipping infrastructure are big for a reason; due to both physics and economics it only makes sense to build big, expensive projects.  In contrast, once you have a bug that turns sugar or cellulose into fuel, the production process could in principle look a lot more like brewing beer.

Companies like Amyris are working on building bugs that can churn out a variety of fuels, and they are aiming for production capacity on a scale that is smaller than Big Oil.  Thus far, however, most of these companies seem to be aiming for hundreds of millions of liters rather than a few liters of production capacity (see my previous post "Amyris Launches Cane-to-Biofuels Partnership").  New technology may lead to rethinking this approach.

To give some context, here is a short excerpt from my recent article in Systems and Synthetic Biology, "Laying the foundations for a bio-economy" (see the original for references):

The economic considerations of scaling up direct microbial production of biofuels are fundamentally and radically different than those of traditional petroleum production and refining. The costs associated with finding a new oil field and bringing it into full production are considerable, but are so variable, depending on location, quality, and local government stability, that they are a poor metric of the average required investment. A very straightforward measure of the cost of increasing supplies of gasoline and diesel is the fractional cost of adding refining capacity, presently somewhere between US$ 1 and 10 billion for a new petro-cracking plant, plus the five or so years it takes for construction and tuning the facility for maximum throughput. Even increasing the capacity of working facility is expensive. Shell recently announced a US$ 7 billion investment to roughly double the capacity of a single, existing refinery.          

In contrast, the incremental cost of doubling direct microbial production of a biofuel is more akin to that incurred in setting up a brewery, or at worst case a pharmaceutical grade cell culture facility. This puts the cost between US$ 10,000 and 100,000,000, depending on size and ultimate complexity. Facilities designed to produce ethanol by traditional fermentation and distillation can cost as much as US$ 400 million.

Pinning down the exact future cost of a microbial biofuel production facility is presently an exercise in educated speculation. But, for both physical and economic reasons, costs are more likely to be on the low end of the range suggested above.

This is particularly true for a fuel like butanol. While distilling or filtering alcohol from the fermented mix would reduce the palatability of beer, it is absolutely required to produce fuel grade ethanol. However, unlike ethanol, butanol has only a limited miscibility in water and therefore does not require as much energy to separate. If an organism can be built to withstand the ∼8% concentration at which butanol begins to phase-separate, the fuel could simply be pumped or skimmed off the top of the tank in a continuous process. Costs will fall even further as production eventually moves from alcohols to hydrocarbon biofuels that are completely immiscible in water. Moreover, beer brewing presently occurs at scales from garages bottling of a few liters at a time to commercial operations running fermenters processing thousands to many millions of liters per year. Thus, once in possession of the relevant strain of microbe, increasing production of a biofuel may well be feasible at many scales, thereby potentially matched closely to changes in demand. Because of this flexibility, there is no obvious lower bound on the scale at which bio-production is economically and technically viable.

The scalability of microbial production of biofuels depends in part on which materials are used as feedstocks, where those materials come from, and how they are delivered to the site of production. Petroleum products are a primary feedstock of today's economy, both as a raw material for fabrication and for the energy they contain. Bio-production could provide fuel and materials from a very broad range of feedstocks. There is no obvious fundamental barrier to connecting the metabolic pathways that Amyris and other companies have built to produce fuels to the metabolic pathways constructed to digest cellulose for ethanol production, or to the pathways from organisms that digest sewage. Eventually, these biological components will inevitably be enhanced by the addition of photosynthetic pathways. Conversion of municipal waste to liquid biofuels would provide a valuable and important commodity in areas of dense human population, exactly where it is needed most. Thus microbial production of biofuels could very well be the first recognizable implementation of distributed biological manufacturing.    

The NYT reports that a company called E-Fuel has developed a refrigerator-sized box that turns yeast and sugar into ethanol.  This home fermentation and distillation unit is described as having a variety of technological improvements, such as semi-permeable membrane filters, that reduce the cost of separating ethanol from water.  The price point for the E-Fuel 100 Microfueler is suggested to be $9995, though few other details are given.

Regular readers will recall that I am not particularly enthusiastic about ethanol, but -- assuming it is real -- the Mircrofueler might be an interesting step forward because it ought to work for higher chain alcohols such as butanol.  The physics is fairly straightforward: there is an increase in enthalpy from mixing alcohol and water, which is in principle the only energy you have to add back to the system to separate them.  In practice, however, the only way to achieve this separation is to heat up the mixture, which requires considerably more energy because water has such a large specific heat.  Any technology that helps reduce the energy cost of separating alcohol from water could substantially lower production costs.

E-Fuel might therefore have a way to help Amyris, or LS9, or even BP lower the costs of separating fuels from aqueous production mixtures, and to do so with a box that could sit in consumers' garages.  This raises all sorts of questions about where the bug comes from, whether for the purposes of cost those bugs are consumables, and where the revenue stream comes from in the long term.  I suspect the answer, long term, is that the feedstock and the hardware are the only way to make money.

For example, let's say the University of Alberta 2007 iGEM team (the "Butanerds"), who continue to work on their project, are successful in building a bug that can crank out butanol from sugar.  That bug will be full of Biobrick parts, which at present sit in the public domain.  Acquiring a working circuit made of Biobrick parts will always be substantially less expensive than building a proprietary circuit.  In other words, if a bunch of (talented) undergraduates manage to get their "open source" biofuel production bug working, then it isn't clear that anybody else will be able to charge for a bug that does the same thing -- unless, of course, a proprietary bug is much more efficient or has other advantages.  But how long would the relevant genetic circuits even stay proprietary?  DNA sequencing is cheap, and DNA synthesis is cheap, so reproducing those circuits is going to be easy.  Nobody is going to get anywhere with "biosecurity through obscurity".

Either way, you then still need some sort of box that houses the bugs during fermentation or synthesis of fuels, and also serves to separate the fuel from the soup in which the bugs grow; enter the Microfueler.

So on the one hand we have a new piece of hardware that supposedly will allow the user to produce fuel at home from sugar (or, perhaps, starch, cellulose, and waste), and on the other hand we are starting to see efforts to build organisms that produce a variety of fuels that might be processed by that hardware.

Here is what I really want to know: How long will it be before we see a partnership between E-Fuel and a company (or an iGEM team) to put butanol (or other fuel molecule) "biorefinery" in your garage?  It could even be a company other than E-Fuel, because they are unlikely to have a corner on the technology necessary to build the relevant hardware.  Or perhaps there will even be an open-source "microbiofueler/biomicrofueler" emerging from a garage or university project?

Distributed biological manufacturing, here we come.

Amyris Launches Cane-to-Biofuels Partnership

I just received word that Amyris has now officially announced a partnership to use Brazilian sugar cane to produce biofuels.  Amyris and Crystalsev are aiming to hit the market with cane-derived biodiesel in 2010.  This deal has been in the works for a while; the press release is here.

Amyris now has access to large amounts of sugar, as well as substantial fermentation capacity, and they need to get their bugs up to snuff for producing large volumes of fuel.  Based on what I have seen in my travels, I expect they will get there.  In principle, the market will be the ultimate judge of the accomplishment, with consumers in the role of jury.  But the market, at present, is also skewed by subsidies and tariffs that place Brazilian products at a disadvantage compared to less efficient domestic production.  It is yet unclear whether the new biofuel will be subject to the same uneven playing field facing Brazilian ethanol.

(Update:  Since this post seems to be getting lots of traffic, I will point those interested to a couple of my earlier posts on the role of Amyris and synthetic biology in producing biofuels: "The Intersection of Biofuels and Synthetic Biology", and "The Need for Fuels Produced Using Synthetic Biology".)